Climate change increases global risk to urban forests

Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez (1) , Mark Tjoelker , Jonathan Lenoir (2) , John Baumgartner , Linda Beaumont , David Nipperess , Sally Power , Benoît Richard (3) , Paul Rymer (1) , Rachael Gallagher (1)

1 Western Sydney University
2 EDYSAN - Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés - UMR CNRS 7058
3 ECODIV - Etude et Compréhension de la biodiversité

Climate change threatens the health and survival of urban trees and the various benefits they deliver to urban inhabitants. Here, we show that 56% and 65% of species in 164 cities across 78 countries are currently exceeding temperature and precipitation conditions experienced in their geographic range, respectively. We assessed 3,129 tree and shrub species, using three metrics related to climate vulnerability: exposure, safety margin and risk. By 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0, 2,387 (76%) and 2,220 (70%) species will be at risk from projected changes in mean annual temperature and annual precipitation, respectively. Risk is predicted to be greatest in cities at low latitudes—such as New Delhi and Singapore—where all urban tree species are vulnerable to climate change. These findings aid the evaluation of the impacts of climate change to secure long-term benefits provided by urban forests.

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement

Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez, Mark Tjoelker, Jonathan Lenoir, John Baumgartner, Linda Beaumont, et al.. Climate change increases global risk to urban forests. Nature Climate Change, 2022, 12 (10), pp.950-955. ⟨10.1038/s41558-022-01465-8⟩. ⟨hal-04011032⟩